Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OP prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-06 0.905477 1.114919 1.340070 1.597890 1.882840 2.186215 2.531732
2024-10-13 0.623320 0.900408 1.223793 1.619555 2.082157 2.598149 3.209895
2024-10-20 0.451331 0.746837 1.115237 1.588601 2.163428 2.824055 3.626742
2024-10-27 0.392075 0.720451 1.150198 1.721201 2.432107 3.264632 4.291441
2024-11-03 0.342478 0.694465 1.175782 1.833936 2.670396 3.664855 4.905920
2024-11-10 0.302019 0.673170 1.201721 1.943001 2.901828 4.056233 5.510899
2024-11-17 0.268784 0.656052 1.228704 2.050095 3.128800 4.441473 6.108972
2024-11-24 0.223976 0.611757 1.211448 2.093935 3.272541 4.723525 6.582746
2024-12-01 0.177754 0.555310 1.169774 2.099428 3.363174 4.937680 6.972984
2024-12-08 0.126549 0.476438 1.085150 2.038047 3.360874 5.032029 7.214087
2024-12-15 0.086657 0.406955 1.006446 1.978183 3.355313 5.118423 7.442523
2024-12-22 0.059832 0.355808 0.950854 1.946534 3.383471 5.244387 7.717259
2024-12-29 0.043129 0.325461 0.931729 1.974403 3.502205 5.499524 8.171053
2025-01-05 0.027684 0.289054 0.897385 1.976969 3.585745 5.710624 8.572845
2025-01-12 0.014865 0.247960 0.847302 1.949791 3.623557 5.858980 8.892849
2025-01-19 0.014277 0.260527 0.904590 2.096299 3.910897 6.338663 9.637461
2025-01-26 0.012764 0.267310 0.949959 2.223767 4.171644 6.784247 10.340154
2025-02-02 0.011137 0.272295 0.991528 2.345417 4.424835 7.221022 11.033322
2025-02-09 0.009611 0.276650 1.031676 2.465068 4.675876 7.656035 11.725801
2025-02-16 0.006043 0.262008 1.029589 2.513868 4.823825 7.953859 12.243064
2025-02-23 0.002669 0.237716 1.003175 2.520003 4.908388 8.166410 12.650733
2025-03-02 0.000300 0.198204 0.935477 2.451600 4.880263 8.225446 12.858932
2025-03-09 NaN 0.163459 0.871514 2.384809 4.851113 8.280685 13.060409